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Department of Community Health, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111 and Laboratory of Human Nutrition, School of Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
1To whom correspondence should be addressed at MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Room E17-434, Cambridge, MA 02139. Phone No: 617 253 5801; Fax No: 617 253 9658; E-mail: vryoung{at}mit.edu
| ABSTRACT |
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KEY WORDS: N balance lysine requirement linear square root log exponential asymptotic
| INTRODUCTION |
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Recently Millward (1997)
questioned our tentative
requirement values for the indispensable amino acids including lysine
and Millward 1999
concluded that an inadequate lysine
supply is not an issue with most cereal-based diets. His argument,
in part, is based on a reanalysis of the N-balance data of
Jones et al. (1956)
, from which he estimated a
requirement of 18.6 mg · kg-1 ·
d-1 (Millward 1998
) with the 95%
confidence limits of that estimate being 14.1 and 27 mg ·
kg-1 · d-1 (Millward 1999
).
Millward's analysis of these N-balance data involved fitting a
log-linear regression model using the aggregated N-balance
values obtained with the 14 women studied in that earlier
investigation.
Because of the potential and very different practical significance of
this conclusion in comparison with our position, and further stimulated
by Millward's paper, we undertook a reexamination of the data of
Jones et al. (1956)
to explore how sensitive the results
were to variations in the aspects of the statistical methodology
involved. This reanalysis of these data permits us to make general
recommendations about the statistical analysis of N-balance data.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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The N-balance data of Jones et al. (1956)
are shown
in Figure 1
; they represent 14 women maintained on various levels of lysine.
Reported balance data were converted from g N/d to mg N ·
kg-1 · d-1 to adjust for differences in
body weight among the subjects (weight range 49.768.0 kg). Since the
original data were for observed N-balance [Intake minus (Urine and
Feces)] in our analyses, we also consider the implications of
different assumptions of the magnitude of the unmeasured, miscellaneous
N losses.
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Statistical context of estimating requirement from N-balance data.
We define the nutrient requirement of a population (Population Requirement) as the minimal intake that produces zero N balance in half of the members of the population. We define the nutrient requirement of an individual as the minimal intake that will produce zero N balance. There are two major difficulties involved in estimating the intake that will produce zero balance. The first is that requirement cannot be determined directly, and investigators must provide known amounts of the test nutrient to individuals and measure the resultant N balance. Data are gathered for responses to different levels of intake, preferably including, for each individual, levels of intake which produce negative and positive balances (since extrapolation is extremely error-prone). Requirement is estimated by interpolating these data to find the intake that produces zero balance. The assumption of a specific mathematical function to be used for interpolation is inherent in this procedure.
A second difficulty is that, as in any biological system, there is variability involvedin the measurement of N intake and output, in the change of an individual's response from day to day, and in the fact that the specifics of N metabolism differ from one individual to another. A major goal of the statistical analysis is to extract useful estimates from this variability. Ideally, a modeling approach will (i) estimate requirement in a way which minimizes the effect of the variability involved, (ii) use the variability to estimate how sure we are of estimates of population requirement, and additionally (iii) permit estimates of the variability of the requirement of the members of the population.
Modes of fitting.
We examine two general procedures for fitting the datafitting all the
data to a single equation, assuming the data are independent
observations (the cross-sectional or "one-fit" mode) and
fitting each subject's data to an individual equation (the
two-stage or "individual-fit" mode) (see e.g., Chapter 1 of
Diggle et al. 1994
). If the data consisted of single
observations on a number of individuals, we would fit all the data in
one pass with a single model and use this to predict population mean
requirement. However, this prediction would be influenced by both the
between-individual variability (how individuals differ among
themselves) and the within-individual variability (how replicate
measurements on an individual at the same level of intake would
differ). If the data consist of several measurements on each
individual, where responses of each individual are measured at several
different intake levels, then each individual's data can be used to
estimate the individual requirements and these individual estimates can
then used to estimate the population requirement (Rand et al. 1977
). Since the data of Jones et al. (1956)
consist of multiple measurements on the 14 individuals, we are able to
use the approach of individual fitting. We contrast this with the
fitting of all the data at one pass, an approach that is sometimes used
to derive requirement values from balance data (e.g., Jackman et al. 1997
; Millward 1998
, Millward 1999
). Notably, the use of the one-fit method with the
data of Jones introduces a bias due to the different numbers of
measurements made on the various individuals. When the measurements are
all assumed to be independent, individuals with more data will
contribute more to the final estimate of requirement than do the
individuals with fewer data points.
Mathematical models.
The choice of a specific mathematical formula to which the data are
fitted is an essential first step to statistical regression (see e.g.,
Chapter 9, Box et al. 1978
). Theoretical considerations
(Flodin et al. 1977
, Mercer et al. 1989
)
suggest a sigmoidal or at least an upper asymptotic relationship
between N intake and N balance. For low intakes, balance is negative
and the available intake is used efficiently with minimal N output or
losses (Waterlow 1986
, Young and Marchini, 1990
), while at high N intakes there is a promotion of whole
body amino acid catabolism (Lewis 1992
) and increased
urea production (Forslund et al. 1998
) such that N
balance would be expected to approach and maintain a constant at
equilibrium. Examination of existing N-balance data (Jones et al. 1956
, Young et al. 1973
, Hegsted 1976
) shows that in general, the change of balance decreases as
intake increases (see Fig. 1
). Because there is no simple,
theoretically-motivated model, we approached the problem as one of
pragmatic statistical fitting (Daniel and Wood 1971
)
rather than mathematical modeling (Carson et al. 1983
,
Clifford and Müller 1998
, Coburn 1992
, Coburn 1996
). Given the
multiple measurements on each individual, we need models which we can
fit to individuals, and since we wish to utilize all the data, we are
restricted to models with only two parameters to be estimated (several
individuals have only two observations). We examined two simple
curvilinear modelsthe natural logarithm and the square root
modeland for comparison we fitted the linear model and the
simplest asymptotic model that we were able to fit, namely the three
parameter exponential approach to an upper asymptote (Eqs. 1
,2
,3
,4
).
![]() | (1) |
![]() | (2) |
![]() | (3) |
![]() | (4) |
These particular models were chosen because they exhibit
different types of curvature (see Fig. 2
), they are easy to use and they can be used to fit individuals with as
few as two determinations of balance (as was the case for four of the
14 subjects). Other complex models were fitted, but examination of the
results showed that the variability of the data at hand did not warrant
their further exploration. Since the basic models we examined are
inherently linear in the transformed variable (the natural log and
square root), we use least squares regression to fit the transformed
data to the model and to determine estimates of the parameters
(Draper and Smith 1981
). Multiple
R2's, estimating the percentage of variability
inherent in the data that the models were able to explain, were
calculated as measures of how well the models fit the data, based on
estimates of standard errors of fitting.
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The original data consist of observed N balance, calculated as the
difference between N intake and N in the urine and feces. We explored
the effect on requirement estimation of two different corrections for
unmeasured N losses, since there is some difference of opinion as to
what this correction should be. Millward (1998
,
Millward 1999
) used a value of 5 mg N · kg-1 · d-1, based on the review by
Millward and Roberts (1996)
of published values of
miscellaneous N losses, which they concluded were lower than 8 mg
N · kg-1 · d-1. The
FAO/WHO/UNU (1985)
report proposes a value of 8 mg
N · kg-1 · d-1, which
approximates that measured by Calloway et al. (1971)
in
meticulous N-balance experiments in healthy adults. It should be
noted that the asymptote of the exponential asymptote model was 7.75,
and thus an intake could not be calculated to allow for 8 mg N ·
kg-1 · d-1 of miscellaneous losses.
For this model, requirement estimates for 7.5 mg of losses were
calculated.
Estimators.
For the one-fit method of fitting (using all the data to fit one equation), the estimate of the population requirement was calculated as the intersection of the estimated mean regression equation with zero balance (corrected for miscellaneous losses). Notably this is neither a mean nor a median estimate of the population requirement; it is merely the intake that gives zero balance, assuming a certain response equation for the population. Asymptotic standard errors of this estimate of population requirement were calculated using standard Taylor expansions as a guide to the precision of these estimates.
For the method of individual fittings, we estimate individual requirements as the intersection of individual regression lines with zero balance. These 14 requirements were then used as a sample of requirements within the population. In order to explore the population distribution of individual requirements, histograms of the data were examined and three methods of estimating population requirement were used: the mean, a minimally trimmed mean (the mean calculated with the largest and smallest observations removed), and the median. For the log and square root models, estimates were calculated from the transformed variables and transformed back to produce the tables values. From the individual requirements, we calculate 95% confidence intervals for our estimate, using the standard error for the mean. Additionally, from the individual estimates, we are able to calculate the range of levels which are likely to include 95% of the individuals in the population as the interpolated 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles.
| RESULTS |
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The problem of extreme individuals is highlighted in Table 4
which shows the estimates of the individual requirements for each of
the 14 women of Jones, individually fitting the data to the square root
and the log model. An important difficulty is illustrated by these
results, namely that the procedure estimates biologically unrealistic
very high and very low requirement values for some individuals. As
Figure 1
shows, those individuals with the extremely high requirements
are those that never came into positive balance during the experimental
period (and alternatively, those with low estimated requirements never
went into negative balance)these are individuals whose requirement is
based on an extrapolation of their data.
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| DISCUSSION |
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Wherever possible (where multiple measurements are taken on each individual), the data of each individual should be fitted individually to their own response curve and those individual curves used to estimate individual requirements. This follows from several considerations:
The mathematical model.
With these N-balance data, it was found that the choice of the mathematical model was not a significant factor, with the exception of the asymptotic model. This model is inappropriate for these data since in the one-fit mode it requires that all individuals have the same limiting asymptote, and its use to individually fit the individuals results in discarding much of the data. Moreover, the very nature of the model as asymptotic means that the estimate is very imprecise anywhere near that asymptote.
In general, none of the models that were tried fitted the data well,
and the actual responses of individuals appear too complex to be
modeled, given the limited amount of data on each individual. While
fitting curves to each individual removes a certain amount of the
variability between individuals, a substantial amount of variability
remains (Table 2)
. Clearly, further experiments are needed to explore
the reproducibility of, and factors that affect, individual
N-balance responses, a problem which Millward and colleagues
emphasized earlier (Millward et al. 1989
). Nevertheless,
we recommend that the square root model be used for data such as these,
until more data are available and the underlying situation can be
clarified. Of the models that we have examined we rule out the linear
model due to its lack of fits both practically and theoretically (Table 2
and Fig. 2
). As shown in Table 3
, estimates from the square root
model are more consistent (less dependent on procedure) than the log
model. This follows from the fact that the predicted requirements of
extreme individuals are more realistic (Table 4)
, since the slope of
the log model is lower than that of the square root model. It should be
kept in mind the statistical procedures here are pragmatic and we fit
the data to an equation in order to interpolate to a criterion of
nutritional adequacy (zero N balance); we are not attempting to model
the underlying biological phenomenon.
Using the median instead of a mean.
We recommend that the median value be used. What is usually defined as
requirement is the minimal level of intake that satisfies the
requirements of half of the population, and this, by definition, is the
median. The mean, although mathematically easier to derive and perhaps
use, is very dependent on the precise placement of all the data. We
explored several alternatives: the mean, which is dependent on the
precise level of each data point; trimmed means, calculated after
leaving out the highest and lowest values; and the median, dependent
only on the position of the two middle data points (the median is, of
course, an extremely trimmed mean with all but these two central points
trimmed away). In our data, these estimates gave similar results,
except for the log model that accentuates the extreme data. The median
requirement ignores the specific levels of those extreme individual
requirements which are biologically unrealistically high or low.
Justification for discounting these extreme data points follows
examination of Figure 1
which shows that those individuals with the
extremely high requirements are those that did not achieve a positive
balance (and alternatively, those with low estimated requirements who
did not fall into an area of negative balance) during the experimental
periodthese are individuals whose requirement is based on an
extrapolation of their data.
Miscellaneous losses.
The most critical element in the estimation of the lysine requirement
from the present N-balance data is the level of miscellaneous
losses that are used in the equation. Figure 2
shows that the response
curves change slowly about the requirement and so using different
levels for the miscellaneous losses, to estimate true zero balance, has
a major effect on the required intake. We examined two reasonable and
previously assumed levels of miscellaneous losses, and it is still a
matter of conjecture as to whether a value of 8 rather than 5 mg N · kg-1 · d-1 is more appropriate. We
recommend that the higher value be accepted, since this was the figure
applied in arriving at current recommendations for protein intakes
(FAO/WHO/UNU 1985
) and because true N balance is
generally underestimated due to the systematic errors involved in
estimating N intake and measuring N output (Fomon and Owen 1962
, Hegsted 1976
, Wallace 1959
). We do, however, consider that this is an area which
needs more careful examination and data gathering, especially with
respect to correlating the magnitude of these miscellaneous losses with
individual characteristics, such as body mass index.
Individual results.
The individual results that are shown in Table 4
suggest that the
experimental design used by Jones et al. (1956)
and
followed by many other investigators since then needs to be reexamined.
As shown in Figure 1
, these estimates of individual requirement are
obviously consistent with the data; however, these estimates are
inconsistent with our understanding of the biology of N metabolism.
Thus, the very high or very low individual requirement estimates reveal
problems in the data and the experimental design that produced the data
rather than difficulties in the statistical analysis. Indeed, this
raises the question as to how representative such data are of the
"requirement phenomenon," which we do not address in this paper.
Certainly, one benefit of the individual fit method is that it makes
this problem explicit, revealing that there are individuals whose data,
during the experimental period, are consistently out of line with
biological expectations. The one-fit method obscures this problem
by fitting all the data to a single curve.
General implications for statistical analysis of N-balance data.
As shown above, estimating nutrient requirements is a very complex procedure. The results of this study show that any statistical analysis of a specific set of N-balance data needs to include a sensitivity analysesexploration of how the results will differ when alternative procedures and assumptions are made. Such analyses will not only show the confidence with which potential users can use the results, it also can show the limitations of the methodology and where additional data might be needed (e.g., as in the above where it is obvious that better information is needed for miscellaneous losses). Finally, an important point that is often overlooked is that statistical point estimates always need to be accompanied by, and interpreted in light of, the variability of those estimates.
Implications for the lysine requirement in adult women.
The N-balance values of Jones et al. (1956)
produce
estimates of median requirement for lysine which are in the range of
2030 mg · kg-1 · d-1,
depending upon the value of the N adjustment applied to account for
unmeasured and miscellaneous losses. Jones et al. (1956)
concluded that 0.40.5 g of lysine daily is adequate for the
establishment of N balance in women. This would be an intake equivalent
to about 6.58 mg · kg-1 · d-1 or
approximately one-third to one-quarter the estimate that we
derived above.
For a further comparison with our analysis, the minimal requirement for
lysine, as estimated using N-balance techniques by Rose et al. (1955)
, in six adult men was 8.8 mg · kg-1
· d-1. Also, Clark et al. (1960)
concluded from N-balance experiments that the mean lysine
requirement for men and women was 10 and 9 mg ·
kg-1 · d-1, respectively, but the
specific N-balance data from which these values were obtained were
not presented in their paper. Hence, it was not possible for us to
examine the results of the investigation by Clark et al. (1960)
by the approach applied here. Similarly, this limitation
also applies to the study of lysine requirements in young college women
by Fisher et al. (1969)
, who concluded that the lysine
requirement might be as low as 50 mg · d-1 (or <1 mg
· kg-1 · d-1).
The variation in the requirement among the subjects in the study by
Jones et al. (1956)
was very high (Table 4
). Individual requirements (based on
square root model with 8 mg of N miscellaneous losses) ranged from a
low of 0.1 to a high of 102 with about half of the values being in the
range of 20 to 70 mg · kg-1 · d-1,
for the 8 mg of N miscellaneous loss correction and about 18 to 40 mg
· kg-1 · d-1 for the 5 mg of N
correction. Intuitively, the very low as well as high end of this range
would appear to reflect the imprecision of the N-balance technique
and limitations in experimental design. We are of this opinion because
it is most unlikely, for example, that an individual would require more
than 1.2 g of milk protein (assuming 72 mg of lysine per g
protein) (FAO/WHO/UNU 1985
) or about 4.0 g whole
wheat flour protein (assuming 24 mg of lysine per g protein)
(Sikka et al. 1975
), per kg body weight per day, to just
meet the requirement for lysine and sustain an N equilibrium.
Similarly, requirement values as low as 6 mg ·
kg-1 · d-1 or less are most unlikely,
when it is appreciated that lysine oxidation continues during the
fasting period. Thus, under conditions where subjects were adapted to a
low lysine intake the rate of oxidation minimally approximates 612 mg
· kg-1 for the 12-h period (A. E. El-Khoury, P.
Pereira and V. R. Young, unpublished MIT results). Even if during
feeding the lysine oxidation was almost completely abolished, an intake
of 612 mg of lysine per kg during the 12-h period would be far less
than required to achieve the net postprandial protein synthesis or N
retention (Price et al. 1994
) that is needed to maintain
body N balance (Young and El-Khoury 1996
), when
protein intakes that meet but do not exceed recommendations
(FAO/WHO/UNU 1985
).
Additionally, two long-term N-balance studies were reported and
their results taken to support the relatively low lysine requirement
estimates that were derived from the earlier N-balance studies
(Millward 1997
, Millward 1998
). However, in one of these studies (Bolourchi et al. 1968
), the high dietary energy intakes provided by the
experimental diet confound interpretation of the N-balance data, as
was pointed earlier (Young 1998
). In the other study
(Edwards et al. 1971
), the intake of lysine approximated
26 mg · kg-1 · d-1, which is close
to that which the present analysis suggests as a mean requirement.
Clearly, the study by Edwards et al. (1971)
fails to
test whether far lower intakes of lysine would be adequate.
We (Young et al. 1998
) suggested that in those
developing regions of the world where diets are based predominantly on
wheat there is a risk of lysine inadequacy. Further, we propose that
such diets would be improved by inclusion of food protein sources rich
in lysine, such as legumes or animal proteins, or through amino acid
fortification. The desirable additions of each source need only be
relatively modest (Pellett and Young 1990
). Finally,
this analysis of the N-balance data of Jones et al. (1956)
appears to offer support for our view that the lysine
requirement of healthy adults significantly exceeds, to an extent that
has significant public health and nutrition planning/policy
implications, the current UN upper requirement value for
lysine of 12 mg · kg-1 · d-1 for
healthy adults (FAO/WHO/UNU 1985
), and that it is more
likely to be in the proximity of 30 mg · kg-1 ·
d-1. This is also in line with, although lower than, the
lysine mean requirement value suggested by the Toronto group
(Duncan et al. 1996
, Zello et al. 1993
)
based on the indicator amino acid oxidation technique (Zello et al. 1995
).
| FOOTNOTES |
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Manuscript received February 11, 1999. Initial review completed April 3, 1999. Revision accepted July 4, 1999.
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